U.S. sales increases that peaked at 28 percent in 2004, the strongest on record, may give way to as little as 15 percent this year and aren't showing signs of returning until at least 2009, according to the New York-based stock research firm Telsey Advisory Group. The firm was founded by retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, whom Institutional Investor magazine ranked as the top specialty stores analyst for seven years through 2005.

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